Project X research on highways infrastructure is the most cited paper in the ‘Project Leadership and Society’ journal for 2024

Government faces many challenges; some are relatively simple to understand, where the objectives are clear, stakeholders’ motivations align and possible solutions are relatively easily evaluated and implemented. However, most challenges facing government are ‘intractable’ and thus can be difficult to tackle. The success of an intervention often relies on the ability of government to work together across departmental ‘silos’. To do this, delivery organisations require methods and methodologies to help deliver the outcomes - this is where systems thinking can help.

Project X researchers applied systems thinking to help National Highways understand the complexity of delivering benefits in the context of their nationally significant infrastructure programme. This work was published in the journal of Project Leadership and Society and subsequently, was awarded the accolade of ‘most cited paper’ for 2024.

The paper uses a methodology similar to the one published in The Government Office for Science ‘Civil Servant’s Systems Thinking Journey’ (2022)

“Systems thinking is a framework for seeing the interconnections in a system and a discipline for seeing and understanding challenges in the context of the whole system; the relevant ‘structures’ that underlie complex situations. Systems thinking can seem difficult, but it doesn’t need to be. Introducing some systems thinking into your work is better than none. Drawing boundaries and seeing the interconnected patterns and forces within those boundaries – and how they relate to the outside – can be a powerful simplification that generates new insights and solutions. Where you set boundaries for the system, i.e. how far you zoom in or zoom out, depends on the problem you are looking to answer and the goal that you want to achieve”

Abstract

In this study, we seek to conceptualise multi-dimensional impacts of infrastructure investment through case studies of three nationally significant highways programmes in England. We use system thinking principles to characterise socioeconomic and policy impacts that may emerge from the interconnectedness of system variables. We consider three ‘complex infrastructure programmes’ in the National Highways portfolio; the A303 Stonehenge Tunnel, the A66 Trans-Pennine upgrade and the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) and illustrate the interdependencies that may be present within and between these programmes using causal models. We identify a set of commonalities between the three programmes, with indications towards potential mechanisms for facilitating economic growth in disparate regions where timely implementation of efficient policies may be achieved. Moreover, we evidence that evaluating impacts through segmented areas of focus such as social, economic and policy may not adequately portray the real impacts of infrastructure investment in a comprehensive way. This research justifies the importance of understanding infrastructure projects as interconnected, complex systems that may deliver desired benefits in a non-linear and highly emergent way. We conclude with a proposition that understanding the characteristics of the larger infrastructure system-of-systems, is crucial to unlocking added value and realising long-term benefits of highways infrastructure investment.

The paper is published under ‘open access’ and free to download here

This study was undertaken as part of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded ‘Project X’ research grant (ES/S009841/1) and an Impact Acceleration Account at The University of Manchester.